The headcount question nobody answers well
Every revenue leader faces the same question at planning time: how many reps do we need to hit our number?
The answer usually comes from one of two places: gut feel ("we need 10 more reps") or simple math ("divide target by average quota"). Both approaches fail. Gut feel ignores data. Simple division ignores ramp time, attrition, territory capacity, and the reality that not every rep will hit 100% of quota.
Sales capacity planning is the disciplined process of calculating how many reps you need, when you need them, and what territories they should cover to hit your revenue targets. Done well, it connects headcount planning to territory design, quota setting, and pipeline coverage in a single model.
Done poorly — or not at all — you either overhire (burning cash on reps who don't have enough territory to work) or underhire (leaving revenue on the table because you can't cover the market).
The capacity planning framework
Sales capacity planning works backward from your revenue target. Here's the framework:
Step 1: Start with the revenue target
Your board-approved revenue target for the year. Break it down by:
- New business vs. expansion vs. renewal: different motions, different capacity requirements
- Segment: enterprise, mid-market, SMB each have different rep productivity assumptions
- Quarter: revenue isn't evenly distributed. Weight your capacity plan by seasonal patterns and ramp schedules
Step 2: Define rep productivity assumptions
For each segment and sales motion, establish:
Average quota per rep. What's realistic based on historical attainment? If your average quota is $1M but average attainment is 75%, your effective productivity is $750K per rep. Use attainment-adjusted productivity, not quota.
Ramp time. How long does a new rep take to reach full productivity? Typical ranges:
| Segment | Ramp to Full Productivity |
|---|---|
| SMB / Transactional | 2-3 months |
| Mid-Market | 4-6 months |
| Enterprise | 6-9 months |
During ramp, productivity is typically 25% in month 1-2, 50% in month 3-4, 75% in month 5-6, and 100% thereafter. Build this curve into your model.
Attrition rate. What percentage of reps leave per year? Industry average is 25-35% for B2B sales. Every rep who leaves creates a productivity gap: the departing rep's declining output plus the replacement rep's ramp time. A 30% attrition rate effectively reduces your productive capacity by 15-20%.
Step 3: Calculate required capacity
Required capacity = Revenue target / Attainment-adjusted productivity per rep
But that's just the starting point. Adjust for:
- Ramp capacity: New hires hired in Q1 won't be at full productivity until Q2-Q3. Factor their partial contribution
- Attrition replacement: If 30% of your team turns over, you need to backfill those seats plus absorb the productivity gap
- Management span: More reps require more managers. Account for manager productivity (if player-coaches) or pure management overhead
Example calculation
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual new business target | $15M |
| Average quota | $1.2M |
| Historical average attainment | 80% |
| Effective productivity per rep | $960K |
| Reps needed at full productivity | 16 |
| Expected attrition (25%) | 4 reps |
| Ramp-adjusted backfills needed | 5 (accounting for ramp) |
| Total reps to carry | 21 |
You need 21 reps on roster to produce 16 full-productivity equivalents to hit $15M. Hiring to 16 reps ignores attrition and ramp. You'll miss your number by Q3.
Connecting capacity to territories
Sales capacity planning and territory design are two sides of the same coin. Capacity planning tells you how many reps you need. Territory design tells you where to deploy them.
Capacity determines territory count
If your capacity plan says you need 21 reps, you need 21 territories (assuming 1:1 assignment). But territory design may push back. Maybe the market naturally splits into 18 territories based on geography, or 24 based on account segmentation. This tension is healthy. It forces alignment between what the math says and what the market supports.
Territory potential validates capacity
After designing territories, calculate the workload index and revenue potential for each. If your 21 territories collectively can't support $15M in pipeline, either your capacity plan is wrong (you need more reps to cover more territory) or your revenue target is unrealistic for your current market.
The feedback loop
Capacity planning → territory design → quota setting → capacity planning. These aren't sequential steps. They're an iterative loop:
- Capacity plan says 21 reps
- Territory design reveals only 18 viable territories with balanced workload
- Quota per rep increases to compensate (from $1.2M to $1.4M)
- Historical attainment at $1.4M quota drops to 70%
- Capacity plan adjusts; maybe you need 22 reps with smaller territories
- Iterate until the model stabilizes
The pipeline coverage layer
Capacity planning doesn't stop at headcount. You also need to ensure sufficient pipeline coverage to support the revenue target.
Pipeline coverage ratio
Pipeline coverage = Total qualified pipeline / Revenue target
Industry benchmarks:
| Sales Cycle Length | Recommended Coverage |
|---|---|
| < 30 days | 2-3x |
| 30-90 days | 3-4x |
| 90-180 days | 4-5x |
| 180+ days | 5-6x |
If your target is $15M and your average sales cycle is 90 days, you need $45-60M in qualified pipeline across the year.
Coverage by territory
Break pipeline coverage down by territory. A territory with $3M in pipeline against a $1M quota has healthy 3x coverage. A territory with $800K in pipeline against a $1M quota is in trouble.
Territory-level pipeline coverage reveals capacity problems before they hit revenue:
- Consistently low coverage across many territories = not enough demand generation or market opportunity
- Low coverage in specific territories = territory design problem or rep performance problem
- High coverage everywhere but low conversion = pipeline quality issue, not capacity
Common capacity planning mistakes
Ignoring ramp time
The most expensive mistake. Hiring 10 reps in January doesn't give you 10 productive reps in January. It gives you 10 productive reps in July (for mid-market) or October (for enterprise). If your plan assumes immediate productivity, you'll miss your first-half targets.
Using quota instead of attainment
If average quota is $1M but average attainment is 75%, your effective productivity is $750K. Planning capacity based on $1M per rep means you'll be 25% short on headcount. Always use attainment-adjusted productivity.
Planning annually instead of quarterly
A single annual capacity plan misses the dynamics of hiring timing, seasonal revenue patterns, and mid-year attrition. Build a rolling quarterly model that adjusts as actuals replace assumptions.
Treating all reps as equal
A rep in year three with an established territory produces differently than a rep in month six still ramping. Your capacity model should segment reps by tenure and productivity tier, not treat them as interchangeable units.
Disconnecting capacity from territory
Hiring 5 new reps without designing 5 new territories means those reps either split existing territories (disrupting productive reps) or cover undefined space (low productivity while they build from scratch). Territory design should run in parallel with capacity planning, not after it.
Building the model
Your capacity planning model should live in a spreadsheet or planning tool that connects these inputs:
Inputs:
- Revenue target by segment and quarter
- Current headcount by segment and tenure
- Historical quota attainment by segment and tenure
- Ramp curve assumptions
- Attrition rate assumptions
- Pipeline coverage targets
Outputs:
- Required headcount by segment and quarter
- Hiring plan (when to start recruiting, accounting for time-to-fill)
- Effective capacity by quarter (accounting for ramp and attrition)
- Gap analysis: target revenue vs. capacity-supported revenue
- Territory count and workload balance requirements
Review cadence: Monthly at minimum. Update actuals for quota attainment, attrition, and pipeline. Adjust the forward-looking plan quarterly.
The bottom line
Sales capacity planning answers the most expensive question in revenue operations: how many reps do you need? Get it wrong by 20% and you've either wasted millions in salary or left millions in revenue uncaptured.
The framework is straightforward: start with the revenue target, adjust for attainment, ramp, and attrition, validate against territory potential and pipeline coverage, and iterate until the model stabilizes.
The discipline is what matters: building the model, updating it with actuals, and using it to drive hiring decisions instead of gut feel. Companies that do this well hit their numbers more consistently. Companies that don't are perpetually surprised by Q3.
At RevenueTools, we're building tools that connect territory design to capacity planning to execution — so the spreadsheet game becomes a connected system. See what launches March 10th.